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The most sophisticated electoral math known to man
By Ned | December 21, 2007
Yesterday’s TPMtv electoral roundup was definitely a keeper. Take a look:
So that makes Romney the eventual nominee, I suspect, since the conservative media’s going to keep piling on Huckabee until he really starts to feel the pressure. Expectations for Huckabee are high right now, so Romney might not even have to get first in Iowa anymore - but if does, then he’s going to be called the resurgent candidate and that boost is going to carry him through New Hampshire and the later states.The other possibility is that Huckabee actually wins the nomination, and I think that’s a possibility that’s often too easily discounted. So far the anti-Huckabee sentiments among GOP pundits hasn’t hurt his momentum so much, and while I suspect it will eventually, it might not be enough to stop the Huckabee steam engine. He could win, and in fact right now I think he has a better chance of winning the nomination than Giuliani. But I’m still going to have to hand it to Romney, with Huckabee as a close second.
On the Democratic side, I think Josh is underestimating the power of the anti-Clinton media firestorm. Sure her “inevitability” was always largely a media creation, as is her current campaign doldrums, but that doesn’t mean that they’re not real. Right now Iowa’s anyone’s game - hell, even Edwards could take it - but I think ultimately both Iowa and New Hampshire are going to go to Obama. What’s going to happen then? I don’t think we’re going to see a line of TV personalities waiting to get on the air and, in perfectly even tones, say, “Well, in all fairness, Clinton’s inevitability was always overrated and she’s still looking pretty strong, so we could have a real fight on our hands still.” No, the reaction’s going to be more along the lines of, “HOLY CRAP, THE ONCE INEVITABLE CANDIDATE IS TAKING A BEATING COULD THIS BE THE BEGINNING OF THE END?!!”
Cue hours and hours of news footage about the Clinton campaign’s total implosion and the inescapable tide of Obamalocity or whatever stupid word they’re going to come up with for it.
Clinton might bounce back from it, and if Edwards takes Iowa we might see a whole different game. But right now my prediction for the general election battle is Obama versus Romney. And it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out how that would turn out.
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December 24th, 2007 at 2:17 am
personally, I’m hoping for a McCain-Lieberman ticket. I won’t get it, I know, but it would be pretty amazing